
Germany, Europe’s most populous nation, along with Estonia and Austria, has officially joined the growing list of European Union (EU) member states grappling with "ultra-low" fertility rates, according to the latest data. This demographic milestone underscores the deepening challenge of declining birth rates across the region, with implications for economic growth, social systems, and workforce sustainability.
Germany’s Decline Below the UN’s “Ultra-Low” Threshold
In 2023, Germany’s fertility rate dropped to 1.35 children per woman, falling below the United Nations’ threshold of 1.4, which characterises "ultra-low" fertility levels. According to experts, such rates are particularly difficult to reverse due to the compounding effects of delayed parenthood and the biological constraints of later childbearing.
This decline in Germany — home to more than 83 million people — marks a significant development, as its economic influence and demographic trends often set the tone for broader shifts within the EU.
Estonia and Austria Follow Suit
Estonia and Austria have also reported fertility rates below the critical 1.4 threshold, joining a growing list of EU countries facing similar demographic challenges. These nations add to the nine EU member states that already recorded "ultra-low" fertility rates in 2022, including Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Malta, Slovakia, Cyprus, and Latvia.
The Broader EU Context
The EU has long faced declining birth rates, with many countries experiencing a generational shift in attitudes toward family planning. Postponing parenthood into one’s 30s has become a widespread trend, but it comes with unintended consequences. Willem Adema, a senior economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), explained:
"The postponement of parenthood until the 30s involves a higher likelihood that you will not have as many children as you would like because of the biological clock."
This dynamic not only reduces the total number of children born but also makes reversing these trends increasingly difficult as smaller generations lead to fewer potential parents in the future.
The Implications of "Ultra-Low" Fertility
A fertility rate below 1.4 children per woman signals a significant demographic challenge. Without sufficient births to replace aging populations, countries face shrinking workforces, rising dependency ratios, and potential long-term economic stagnation. The issue is particularly pressing for social welfare systems that depend on a steady stream of younger workers to support retirees.
Countries such as Spain (1.19), Greece (1.24), and Italy (1.25) have long struggled with low fertility rates, while others like Germany, Estonia, and Austria are now experiencing similar declines. This regional trend reflects not only individual choices but also structural issues such as economic insecurity, lack of family-friendly policies, and cultural shifts in attitudes toward parenthood.
Addressing the Challenge
The EU and individual member states are exploring ways to tackle declining birth rates. Policies aimed at supporting working parents, such as subsidised childcare, paid parental leave, and housing incentives, have been implemented in some countries with mixed success. However, experts warn that addressing cultural and economic barriers to parenthood requires a multifaceted approach.
As Germany, Estonia, and Austria join the ranks of "ultra-low" fertility nations, the pressure mounts for policymakers to act decisively. Without intervention, the EU faces an uncertain demographic future that could reshape the region’s economic and social fabric for decades to come.
For now, the list of "ultra-low" fertility countries continues to grow, signalling that Europe’s demographic crisis is far from over.
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